Prediction Isn't Judgment: What Predictive AI Can—and Cannot—Do

Predictive systems are increasingly used to forecast risks, identify priorities, allocate resources, and support public-sector decision-making. But prediction is not the same as judgment. This session explores how predictive AI works, what different kinds of predictive systems actually predict, and where prediction can improve government performance. Participants will learn how to distinguish between problems that are well-suited to predictive approaches and those that require other forms of analysis, expertise, or public deliberation.